Book Review: The Luck Factor by Max Gunther

I went for a  ride on my bike to the library the other day. I was feeling sedentary from several hours working at the computer on a project.  When I head to the library, sometimes I go with a clear intention in mind, but often I head their for the cool of the aircon and the sense of peace I feel among the books. I will wander the aisles and browse the spines of the books and pick books that peak my interest. After choosing 3 or 4, I find a seat and begin scanning them. Often they hold no relevance to anything that I have been thinking about and as I flip through them I assign them to be reshelved.  It is pretty rare that I find a book that I borrow to finish reading.

I pulled The Luck Factor off the shelf and turned it over in my hands to read the front cover.  Its cover design makes it look like and old, worn, tatty, paperback, and at the top of the cover it says "A lost classic brought back into print to help change your luck - for the better!"  That probably got my attention more than the original blurb below the title "Why some people are luckier than others and how you can become one of them." (See Footnote 1 for a tangential thought relating to one of my favourite fantasy characters - Mattrim Cauthon from the Wheel of Time)

The book was first published in 1977.  Its author, Max Gunther, was a journalist and he has a suite of books to his name. I've not read any of the others, but many of their titles make me think that they were probably written in a similar manner to this book, and probably from the same research (Wikipedia Link). 

The premise for the book is that some people are lucky, whilst others are not - what do the two groups do differently? Reading the book reminded me, in many ways, to the work of Malcolm Gladwell.  The author goes about investigating his premise and developing an answer to his question by interviewing large numbers of people from different walks of life. He dissects aspects of their stories, asserting that there are consistent themes in the way that people in the lucky group live their lives, whilst opposing themes can be found in the unlucky. He interviews academics and weaves in their findings and experiences as well.

Much of the book is made up of engaging dissections of interviews and experiences. They are easy to read and the author does a great job of tying them to themes that he explores - theories on luck (randomness, psychic and synchronicity theories; occult and mystical ideas). He does this in a very neutral manner, managing to avoid passing judgment on ideas or concepts. He then distills the information from his research into his unifying theory of good luck and how to achieve it - his astutely titled "Luck Adjustment".

Now, if I am honest, I was captured by the idea of finding a way to harness luck a little better. I definitely am not unlucky, and I would say that I am extremely lucky in some aspects of my life, but who among us could not do with a formula for improving our odds.  I was initially tempted to skip straight to the "adjustment" chapters, but the author does a good job of engaging you with a short introductory chapter called "The Quest".  From there I was hooked. I enjoyed the stories of good and bad luck.  I enjoyed the way that the author created counter points. I could, however, see the early chapters putting some readers off - some of them seem quite 'woo-woo' weird, with interviews with people who feel they have psychic knacks. Regardless of this, the stories are not long and the author reminds you to let your beliefs and opinions ride for just a little longer.

So what does the Luck Adjustment come down to?  You should read the book to get your own understanding of the author's assertions. He has given each of the five rule factors of luck a name. I will share his name (and my interpretation), as well as what I have taken away from the proposals behind each factor.

• The Spiderweb Structure (Network Effect)
  • Remember that this book was written in the 1970s. The understanding of networks and connectivity was probably nowhere near as well developed as we now consider.(See Footnote 2) Essentially, this boils down to something that we all know to some extent - the more threads you have in your contact network, the more likely you are to catch an opportunity.
  • The premise is that being visible, having warm, friendly, memorable conversations with people from different realms of life can lead to improved chances of being seen, heard or remembered by someone that needs your skills.
  • I have to say, as an introvert, this one rule ground on me - it made me think, 'the world rewards extroverts'. But the more I thought on it, the more I realised that what it was perhaps not saying strongly enough is that you should be open, friendly and interested in people when you first meet them. Even an introvert can do that, but it can take some practice starting such conversations.
• Hunching Skill (Intuition)
  • Hunches are usually a result of subconscious processing of more data than what you are aware of possessing. They can relate to people or situations.  We all have hunches, and children in particular often have really strong ones, but as we get older we tend to have our faith in our intuition beaten out of us by society, which asks us to make decisions based on facts, to be fully rational.
  • Hunches are feelings, and often we do not take time to assess feelings - think of the negative social connotations to emotions.
  • You have to differentiate hunches from wishes or daydreams.  The unlucky tend to confuse these.
  • To cultivate your intuition, give yourself time and space to process 'soft facts' - the things that you cant necessarily verbalise about a situation, then act when you have enough of both hard and soft facts to make a decision. Check the result in the future to reinforce that you are getting better. Learning to feel the room is a useful skill to have.
• Audentes fortuna juvat - Fortune Favours The Bold (Be Bold and Prepared)
  • Being lucky comes with taking risks.  If you take no risks, it is unlikely than any good luck can come to you, but certainly bad luck still can.
  • The so called lucky people are those that are bold enough to take opportunities when they arise. They are also prepared to take them.
  • They can identify the difference between a bold decision and a rash decision. They may tend to be conservative still, and will often use some superstition or similar to nudge them into taking an opportunity, which is better than either letting opportunities pass them by or rashly taking any and every opportunity that arises.
• The Ratchet Effect (Get Out Early)
  • Lucky people have systems in place to preserve their gains or, in the very least minimise their losses. They have the ability to 
    • admit they are wrong early and get out
    • accept small losses whilst waiting for big gains
    • avoid the sunk cost fallacy, which says "I have invested too much in this, I have to ride it out"
  • It is pretty simple to engage this tool, but it goes against many human characteristics, so it can be hard to implement. Essentially you should never enter a situation without an escape plan.
• The Pessimism Paradox (Nurture Your Pessimism)
  • It pays much more to be pessimistic than it does to be optimistic.
  • Use Murphy's Law (If something can go wrong, it will) and what the author calls Mitchell's Law (essentially - Life is not orderly and you can not master it.)
  • If you lose your pessimism you are prone to dropping your guard - you stop listen to hunches, you lose your ratchet and you can find yourself in difficult circumstances

So those are the 5 simple steps to becoming more lucky, or perhaps less unlucky depending on your start point.  

The book runs only for 214 pages. It is easy to pick up and put down and it doesn't pose too much in the way of an intellectual challenge. It probably resonated with me as a result of some of the stories and analogies, which could have been taken from my life and the lives of people I know. I think it is worth a read. It may just have changed my perspective on a few things, but only time will tell that.

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The luck factor: why some people are luckier than others and how you can become one of them
Max Gunther
First published 1977
Read edition published 2010 by John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd
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Footnote 1 - I found myself wondering several times throughout this book, but particularly in reading the adjustment factors, whether Robert Jordan may have been a devotee of the this book. I would be interested to know if it was amongst his collection. Matt learns, through the series, to harness his luck. Yes he has another supernatural lever (knowledge from historical captains and generals) but as his taveren luck ramps up, he can be seen to use these adjustments.

Footnote 2 - In reading this section on spiderweb effect, written well before internet and social media, I wonder if, instead of improving our luck with our increased connectedness in the current world, maybe we have confused or impeded it.  So many people have so many tenuous and thin connections, how can they really create meaningful opportunities from them. It has become like an abandoned house full of cobwebs - people yank at all their threads, rather than sharing connections to individuals. A good friend of mine recently told me of the improvement he has found from removing himself from social media and focusing on a smaller web of important connections. Seems to make sense to me.